DESERTION FROM THE ARMY
Leaving a military unit without permission (AWOL)
The analysis of the top reasons for desertion and AWOL and the potential for military personnel to return is based on a social survey, official data from the Office of the Prosecutor General for 2022-2024 (according to Ukrainska Pravda), research by Texty.org.ua, and a sociological survey by InfoSapiens.
Stages:
1) Formulating the scale of the problem
2) Factors influencing the propensity to desert
3) Reasons for desertion and potential reasons for return
4) Determining the potential for return
5) Comparing the results of the study with the social survey
6) Conclusion
Overall case statistics. First stage.
Let’s determine the scale. What is the actual number of cases of unauthorized absence from military units and desertion over the past three years?
Official statistics for 2022-2024 show a total of: AWOL ≈ 60,000, desertion ≈ 30,000.
At the same time, some cases of unauthorized absence from duty involve 20-30 people in each case, which means that it is necessary to count not the number of cases, but the number of people in each case, noted Roman Lykhachov, a military lawyer at the Center for Support of Veterans and Their Families, on KYIV24.
Therefore, the actual number of such cases is officially unknown and could reach 100,000 people or even more.

Method of mobilization and length of service as influencing factors. Second stage
Let’s find out the role of some factors that may/could influence the decision to leave the place of service without permission.
Survey: “Who left the army without permission, why, and under what conditions would they return?”
Methodology.
The sociological survey was conducted by Texty.org.ua.
Survey period: October 2024 – January 2025.
Number of respondents: 128 military personnel who left their units without permission.
In-depth interviews: with three participants who left their place of service without permission and a separate in-depth interview with a captain of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who remains in service and has dealt with people who left their military units.
NotaBene from Texty.org.ua:
Given the number of cases of desertion, more than 1,000 respondents should have been surveyed. However, this is practically impossible even for professional sociological organizations, as it is very difficult to find and persuade a person who has problems with the law to speak openly.
Although the study is based on a limited amount of data, it allows us to draw preliminary conclusions about the problem of desertion.

Reasons for leaving the place of service and possible reasons for returning. Stage three
The top three reasons for such actions and the reasons for a likely return are almost identical, and include the absence of a fixed term of service and timely rotations, exhaustion, and the possibility of full recovery.
What caused the incident of unauthorized absence from military service?
54% Lack of clear terms of service and rotations
46% Command that does not protect subordinates
44% Exhaustion, fatigue, no opportunity for recovery
34% Corruption in the army
32% Ignoring/prohibiting the need for medical treatment
28% Conflicts with command
27% Threat and fear of death
25% Fatigue from army life
25% Constant coercion, pressure, lack of freedom
25% Lack of adequate response to complaints
24% Refusal to transfer to another unit
22% Manipulation and psychological pressure
19% Death of comrades
15% Great longing for home and family
13% Unwillingness to be in the army, to fight
11% Health problems among family members
11% Hierarchy among the military

Factors that might make them come back
58% Reform of the army, review of command structure
55% Clearly defined terms of service and rotation
42% Guaranteed opportunity for full recovery
34% Support from the command
27% Conflict resolution, response to complaints
16% Psychological support
13% Nothing will help
9% Salary increases
6% Improved living conditions
2% Simplified transfer to other units or branches of the military (National Guard, etc.)
2% Employment of military personnel in accordance with their knowledge, abilities, and skills
2% Fair medical examination

Potential for return to service. Stage four.
We analyze the readiness to return to service.
Are the military ready to return to service?
NotaBene from Texty.org.ua:
Almost half of respondents (45%) are ready or somewhat ready to return to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This indicates that, provided key barriers are overcome, there is significant potential for the successful reintegration of military personnel.
Participants in in-depth interviews talk about the difficulties they face in their attempts to return to service: cooperation with the investigation and submitting applications to the Military Prosecutor’s Office and the State Bureau of Investigation prove to be futile, but hiring private lawyers gives them some hope.
An important motive for returning is a sense of duty to those on the front lines, which indicates a high level of collective responsibility.

Stage five. Comparison of results
This is the result of another survey with a similar question about cases of unauthorized absence from duty, which was conducted among civilians or predominantly civilians. Comparing the results of the two surveys provides an understanding of how the population (civilian and military) will perceive reforms aimed at addressing the issues raised in the surveys.
What do you think should be done to minimize the number of soldiers who have left their military units without permission?
Methodology:
The online survey was conducted by InfoSapiens on behalf of Public Broadcasting.
Survey period: April 8-9, 2025.
Number of respondents: 800 people across Ukraine (excluding TOT) aged 18-70.
Responses:
61% Rotations and leave
48% Increase salaries and social guarantees
46% Set clear terms of service
37% Increase the training period for recruits
10% Difficult to answer
7% Introduce tougher penalties
6% Other: including 1% fair mobilization conditions for all and 1% criminal liability for unlawful actions by officers

Conclusion
The reasons for “desertion from the army” and the likely reasons for returning are almost identical and relate to key reforms in the army. First and foremost, changes in the army should regulate the terms of service and the responsibility of commanders (top two reasons for desertion and factors for return). It is noteworthy that volunteers are no less prone to desertion (79%), and exhaustion and fatigue are among the reasons for leaving the military. It is also noteworthy that the number of cases in the third year of service almost doubles. Therefore, we can say to a certain extent that a person’s initial motivation or impulse is not a decisive factor. And that with an increase in the length of service in the army, without a fixed term of service and replacement, the number of desertions from the army will only grow. Incidentally, official statistics confirm this, as the number of cases increases exponentially each year. The civilian population also sees clear terms of service as one of the factors reducing desertion from the army (46%) and ranks it third among other factors.
Instead, we can predict that key reforms in the army will help bring back almost half of those who left the service without permission. The NGO “Intention” suggests starting with regulating the term of service at the legislative level. We have developed a proposal that introduces a gradual and sequential replacement of exhausted military personnel.
You can check it out in the “terms of service” menu on the website. We encourage our audience to join us and help spread the word about the military’s call for reforms in the army!